The Effective Goalie Formula and Its Uses
By Ethan Fasking Part 1: Development and Purpose The core idea behind the Effective Goalie Formula (EGF) was to aggregate baseline goalie statistics in a way that directly compares goalies to each other in a manner similar to football’s Quarterback Rating (QBR). To accomplish this, I first determined which statistics best reflect a goalie’s core effectiveness. I determined these to be save percentage (SV%), saves per game played (SV/GP), goals against average (GAA), and shutouts per game played (SHO/GP). SV% was chosen because it is directly proportional to the value a goalie adds to their team, i.e. the higher proportion of shots they save, the more effective they are to their team. SV/GP was determined to be important because, as demonstrated below, a higher SV/GP was associated with higher GAA stats and lower SHO/GP stats. Using SV/GP allows us to account for this phenomenon and better judge a goalie’s effectiveness in context. GAA was chosen to acknow...